Oversold

AAOI

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth68/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential67/ 100

AAOI's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to a return to profit and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +61.8%, operating margin +1.7 percentage points. The business score is 67.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 92.5% upside, or about $202.82.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 28.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 67% downside, or about $34.77, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AAOI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.78-$2.42$1.64 higher
FCF-$413.3M-$81M-$332.2M
Loading historical comparisons…

AAOI’s earnings are above their historical averages.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning positive
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

AAOI’s outlook is generally improving, supported by an expected return to profitability.

AAOI PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies AAOI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks AAOI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks AAOI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks AAOI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AAOI Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in AAOI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AAOI Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares AAOI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AAOI Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses AAOI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares AAOI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AAOI Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

IOT

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth88/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential45/ 100

IOT's valuation appears fair while strong fundamentals support the investment case and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +29.5%, earnings +58.1%, operating margin +9.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 13.8% of revenue. The business score is 88.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 49.1% upside, or about $57.22.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 21.9%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 44.8% downside, or about $21.19, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

IOT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE239x541x56% lower
EPS$0.16-$0.36$0.52 higher
FCF$255.5M-$7.2M+$262.7M
Loading historical comparisons…

IOT’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

IOT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

IOT’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

IOT PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies IOT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

IOT Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks IOT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

IOT Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks IOT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

IOT Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks IOT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

IOT Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in IOT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

IOT Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

IOT PE vs Technology Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares IOT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

IOT Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses IOT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

IOT Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares IOT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

IOT Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.