Oversold

AAOI

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth68/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential67/ 100

AAOI's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to a return to profit and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +61.8%, operating margin +1.7 percentage points. The business score is 67.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 92.5% upside, or about $202.82.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 28.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 67% downside, or about $34.77, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AAOI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.78-$2.42$1.64 higher
FCF-$413.3M-$81M-$332.2M
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AAOI’s earnings are above their historical averages.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning positive
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

AAOI’s outlook is generally improving, supported by an expected return to profitability.

AAOI PE Valuation

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This table applies AAOI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AAOI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AAOI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AAOI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AAOI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AAOI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AAOI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares AAOI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AAOI Weekly Price

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This chart uses AAOI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AAOI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AAOI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

NXPI

Same as last week
Valuation64/ 100
Cash flow & growth78/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential20/ 100

NXPI's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 20.2× versus the full-history median of 22.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 58.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 64/100. The model applies a 22.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 23.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 24.2× PE and $15.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +8.8%, earnings +39.7%, operating margin +3.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 22.4% of revenue. The business score is 78.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $15.39 of EPS and a 24.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $372.13. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 57.3% upside, or about $372.20.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $10.23 of EPS and a 18.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $190.23 — 20% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NXPI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE20x63x68% lower
PE percentile345033% lower
EPS$11.72$7.7152% higher
FCF$3B$2.6B15% higher
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NXPI’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NXPI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

NXPI’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

NXPI PE Valuation

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This table applies NXPI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NXPI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NXPI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NXPI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NXPI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NXPI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NXPI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NXPI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NXPI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NXPI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NXPI PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares NXPI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NXPI Weekly Price

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This chart uses NXPI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NXPI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NXPI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NXPI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.