Oversold

AAON

Valuation65/ 100
Cash flow & growth62/ 100
Upside potential74/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

AAON's valuation is attractive while fundamentals are somewhat mixed and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 4.7%, from $75.87 to $79.40.

Valuation and price changes added 1.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 41.8× versus the full-history median of 45.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 56.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 64.9/100. The model applies a 34% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 50.7× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 51.7× PE and $2.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +53.5%, earnings +29.9%, operating margin -1.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is -6.1% of revenue. The business score is 62.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.78 of EPS and a 51.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $143.57. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 79.9% upside, or about $143.56.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.64 of EPS and a 37.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $61.40 — 23% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AAON vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE42x49x15% lower
PE percentile275046% lower
EPS$1.91$1.4235% higher
FCF-$118.8M-$15.2M-$103.6M
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AAON’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AAON Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

AAON’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

AAON PE Valuation

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This table applies AAON's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AAON Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AAON's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AAON Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AAON's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AAON Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AAON's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AAON Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AAON's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AAON Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AAON PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AAON's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AAON Weekly Price

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This chart uses AAON's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AAON Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AAON's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AAON Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

VRT

Valuation74/ 100
Cash flow & growth83/ 100
Upside potential80/ 100
Risk potential21/ 100

VRT's valuation is attractive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 2 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 9.1%, from $257.08 to $280.53.

Valuation and price changes added 2.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 58.2× versus the full-history median of 71.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 63.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 74.1/100. The model applies a 38.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 71.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 74× PE and $6.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +26.2%, earnings +111.5%, operating margin +1.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 25.5% of revenue. The business score is 82.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.59 of EPS and a 74× PE, suggesting a share price of about $488.00. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 89.8% upside, or about $487.90.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.91 of EPS and a 52.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $204.47 — 21% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

VRT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE58x95x39% lower
PE percentile165068% lower
EPS$4.42$0.75491% higher
FCF$2.9B$636.7M359% higher
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VRT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

VRT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

VRT’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

VRT PE Valuation

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This table applies VRT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

VRT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks VRT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

VRT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks VRT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

VRT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks VRT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

VRT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in VRT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

VRT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

VRT PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares VRT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

VRT Weekly Price

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This chart uses VRT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

VRT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares VRT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

VRT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.