The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.1%, from $319.70 to $319.97. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 38.1× versus the full-history median of 30.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 35.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 34.8/100. The model applies a 9.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 33.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 35× PE and $10.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +14.2%, earnings +32.5%, operating margin +1.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 29.3% of revenue. The business score is 77.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $10.25 of EPS and a 35× PE, suggesting about $359.05 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $382.11. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.50 of EPS and a 32.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $242.02 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 23.1× versus the full-history median of 33.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 73/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 74.6/100. The model applies a 14.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 30.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 25.7× PE and $8.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +6.7%, earnings +11.7%, operating margin +1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 27.4% of revenue. The business score is 69.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $8.64 of EPS and a 25.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $222.13. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 37.9% upside, or about $222.18.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.95 of EPS and a 22.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $131.36 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.