Oversold

ADTN

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential44/ 100

ADTN's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +15.7%, operating margin +5.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5% of revenue. The business score is 72.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 36.9% upside, or about $9.72.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 25%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 43.6% downside, or about $4.00, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ADTN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE410x225x82% higher
PE percentile884979% higher
EPS-$0.32-$1.69$1.37 higher
FCF$56.9M-$10.6M+$67.6M
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ADTN’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ADTN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

ADTN’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

ADTN PE Valuation

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This table applies ADTN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ADTN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ADTN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ADTN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ADTN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ADTN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ADTN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ADTN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ADTN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ADTN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ADTN PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ADTN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ADTN Weekly Price

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This chart uses ADTN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ADTN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ADTN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ADTN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.