Oversold

AER

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

AER's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.4%, from $147.49 to $145.40.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 10.3x versus 9.9x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 31 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4%, operating margin +7.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is -3.7% of revenue. The business score is 62.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $16.74 of EPS and a 10.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $171.66. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 21.3% upside, or about $171.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $11.61 of EPS and a 9.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $113.11 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AER vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7x6.5x7% higher
PE percentile585015% higher
EPS$20.32$7.99154% higher
FCF-$307.3M$252.9M221% lower
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AER’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AER Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

AER’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AER PE Valuation

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This table applies AER's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AER Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AER's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AER Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AER's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AER Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AER's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AER Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AER's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AER Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AER PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AER's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AER Weekly Price

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This chart uses AER's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AER Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AER's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AER Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.