Oversold

AER

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

AER's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.4%, from $147.49 to $145.40.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 10.3x versus 9.9x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 31 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4%, operating margin +7.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is -3.7% of revenue. The business score is 62.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $16.74 of EPS and a 10.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $171.66. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 21.3% upside, or about $171.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $11.61 of EPS and a 9.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $113.11 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AER vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7x6.5x7% higher
PE percentile585015% higher
EPS$20.32$7.99154% higher
FCF-$307.3M$252.9M221% lower
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AER’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AER Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

AER’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AER PE Valuation

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This table applies AER's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AER Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AER's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AER Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AER's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AER Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AER's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AER Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AER's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AER Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AER PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AER's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AER Weekly Price

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This chart uses AER's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AER Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AER's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AER Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

BA

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential43/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

BA's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +24.8%, operating margin +7.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is -0.2% of revenue. The business score is 73.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 23.7% upside, or about $260.33.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 28.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 30.8% downside, or about $145.63, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

BA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE91x91x0% lower
EPS$2.31-$9.92$12.23 higher
FCF-$210M-$4.8B+$4.5B
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BA’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

BA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

BA’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

BA PE Valuation

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This table applies BA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

BA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks BA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

BA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks BA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

BA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks BA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

BA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in BA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

BA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

BA PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares BA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

BA Weekly Price

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This chart uses BA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

BA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares BA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

BA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.