Oversold

AER

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

AER's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.4%, from $147.49 to $145.40.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 10.3x versus 9.9x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 31 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4%, operating margin +7.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is -3.7% of revenue. The business score is 62.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $16.74 of EPS and a 10.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $171.66. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 21.3% upside, or about $171.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $11.61 of EPS and a 9.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $113.11 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AER vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7x6.5x7% higher
PE percentile585015% higher
EPS$20.32$7.99154% higher
FCF-$307.3M$252.9M221% lower
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AER’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AER Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

AER’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AER PE Valuation

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This table applies AER's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AER Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AER's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AER Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AER's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AER Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AER's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AER Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AER's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AER Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AER PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AER's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AER Weekly Price

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This chart uses AER's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AER Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AER's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AER Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

CAT

Valuation18/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

CAT's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.7%, from $800.25 to $813.94. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 35.2× versus the full-history median of 17.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 13.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 17.5/100. The model applies a 28.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 30.5× PE and $32.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.4%, earnings +18.3%, operating margin -0.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 12% of revenue. The business score is 67.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $32.19 of EPS and a 30.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $983.33. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 20.1% upside, or about $983.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $20.24 of EPS and a 28.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $580.07 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CAT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x21x68% higher
PE percentile885077% higher
EPS$23.25$15.0455% higher
FCF$9B$6.8B32% higher
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CAT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CAT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

CAT’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CAT PE Valuation

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This table applies CAT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CAT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CAT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CAT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CAT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CAT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CAT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CAT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CAT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CAT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CAT PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares CAT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CAT Weekly Price

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This chart uses CAT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CAT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CAT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CAT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.