Oversold

AGCO

Valuation31/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential32/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

AGCO's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are below averages and expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 17.6%, from $113.39 to $133.40. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 2.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 16.8× versus the full-history median of 11.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 26.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 30.6/100. The model applies a 21.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.5× PE and $9.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +1.7%, earnings +447%, operating margin +0.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.2% of revenue. The business score is 60.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $9.44 of EPS and a 14.5× PE, suggesting about $136.63 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $139.26. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $6.21 of EPS and a 13.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $84.76 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AGCO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE17x21x22% lower
PE percentile645028% higher
EPS$7.22$7.838% lower
FCF$330.3M$519.7M36% lower
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AGCO’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AGCO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

AGCO’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

AGCO PE Valuation

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This table applies AGCO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AGCO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AGCO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AGCO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AGCO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AGCO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AGCO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AGCO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AGCO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AGCO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AGCO PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AGCO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AGCO Weekly Price

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This chart uses AGCO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AGCO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AGCO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AGCO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.