Oversold

AGNC

Same as last week
Valuation73/ 100
Cash flow & growth57/ 100
Upside potential35/ 100
Risk potential22/ 100

AGNC's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages, but expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 5.2× versus the full-history median of 8.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 76.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 72.5/100. The model applies a 0.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 8.7× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: earnings +488.1%. The business score is 56.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $11.67. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 22.1% downside, or about $7.91, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AGNC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE5.2x47x89% lower
PE percentile255051% lower
EPS$1.96$0.27617% higher
FCF$886M$781.9M13% higher
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AGNC’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AGNC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

AGNC’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

AGNC PE Valuation

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This table applies AGNC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AGNC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AGNC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AGNC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AGNC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AGNC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AGNC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AGNC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AGNC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AGNC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AGNC PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares AGNC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AGNC Weekly Price

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This chart uses AGNC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AGNC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AGNC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AGNC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

OPEN

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth24/ 100
Upside potential45/ 100
Risk potential66/ 100

OPEN's valuation appears fair, weak fundamentals weigh on the score, while forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -37.2%, operating margin -11.6 percentage points. The business score is 23.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 53.8% upside, or about $4.29.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 66.1% downside, or about $0.95, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

OPEN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$1.89-$1.45$0.44 lower
FCF-$474M-$463.3M-$10.7M
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OPEN’s earnings are below their historical averages.

OPEN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

OPEN’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

OPEN PE Valuation

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This table applies OPEN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

OPEN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks OPEN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

OPEN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks OPEN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

OPEN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks OPEN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

OPEN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in OPEN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

OPEN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

OPEN PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares OPEN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

OPEN Weekly Price

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This chart uses OPEN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

OPEN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares OPEN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

OPEN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.