Oversold

ALCO

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth41/ 100
Upside potential16/ 100
Risk potential65/ 100

ALCO's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -61.4%, operating margin +354.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is -20.8% of revenue. The business score is 41.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $46.49. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 64.7% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 49.8% and the PE falls 29.7%. That gives $0.11 per share at a 135.3× PE, or about $14.26. Price swings alone suggest 22.8% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ALCO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE193x15x1,200% higher
PE percentile10050101% higher
EPS$0.21-$1.32$1.53 higher
FCF-$3.6M-$20.5M+$16.9M
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ALCO’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ALCO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning negative
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

ALCO’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

ALCO PE Valuation

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This table applies ALCO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ALCO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ALCO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ALCO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ALCO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ALCO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ALCO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ALCO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ALCO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ALCO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ALCO PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares ALCO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ALCO Weekly Price

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This chart uses ALCO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ALCO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ALCO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ALCO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.