Oversold

ALKS

Valuation5/ 100
Cash flow & growth43/ 100
Upside potential14/ 100
Risk potential60/ 100

ALKS's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 14 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.8%, from $47.41 to $46.10.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 120× versus the full-history median of 15.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 5.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 5.1/100. The model applies a -19.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 15.7× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 100.5× PE and $0.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +10.8%, earnings -81.6%, operating margin -17.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 13.3% of revenue. The business score is 43/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.34 of EPS and a 100.5× PE, suggesting about $34.65 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $52.87. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.23 of EPS and a 81× PE, suggesting a share price of about $18.24 — 60% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ALKS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE120x24x396% higher
PE percentile985098% higher
EPS$0.38$0.5834% lower
FCF$221.7M$223.1M1% lower
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ALKS’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ALKS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning negative
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

ALKS’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

ALKS PE Valuation

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This table applies ALKS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ALKS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ALKS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ALKS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ALKS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ALKS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ALKS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ALKS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ALKS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ALKS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ALKS PE vs Healthcare Sector

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This chart compares ALKS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ALKS Weekly Price

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This chart uses ALKS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ALKS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ALKS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ALKS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

LLY

Valuation76/ 100
Cash flow & growth82/ 100
Upside potential77/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

LLY's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.1%, from $1174.61 to $1149.36. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 37.4× versus the full-history median of 48.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 67.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 75.6/100. The model applies a 34.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 51.8× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 44.4× PE and $43.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +49.6%, earnings +94.8%, operating margin +1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 25.2% of revenue. The business score is 82.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $43.23 of EPS and a 44.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $1917.95. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 71.9% upside, or about $1917.89.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $26.12 of EPS and a 34.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $907.73 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

LLY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE37x57x35% lower
PE percentile305040% lower
EPS$29.80$9.50214% higher
FCF$20.1B$3.2B525% higher
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LLY’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

LLY’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

LLY PE Valuation

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This table applies LLY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

LLY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks LLY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks LLY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

LLY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks LLY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

LLY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in LLY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

LLY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

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This chart compares LLY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

LLY Weekly Price

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This chart uses LLY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares LLY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

LLY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.