Oversold

ALMS

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth50/ 100
Upside potential48/ 100
Risk potential70/ 100

ALMS's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: limited comparable growth data. The business score is 50/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 64.5% upside, or about $15.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 69.6% downside, or about $2.79, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ALMS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$3.80-$4.03$0.23 higher
FCF-$351.8M-$268M-$83.8M
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ALMS’s earnings are above their historical averages.

ALMS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

ALMS’s outlook is mixed, with declining sales expectations a concern.

ALMS PE Valuation

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This table applies ALMS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ALMS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ALMS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ALMS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ALMS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ALMS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ALMS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ALMS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ALMS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ALMS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ALMS PE vs Healthcare Sector

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This chart compares ALMS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ALMS Weekly Price

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This chart uses ALMS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ALMS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ALMS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ALMS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

UNH

Same as last week
Valuation47/ 100
Cash flow & growth46/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

UNH's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 24.4× versus the full-history median of 21.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 41.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 46.9/100. The model applies a 21.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 22.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 24.6× PE and $20.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +6.5%, earnings -32.6%, operating margin -2.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.2% of revenue. The business score is 45.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $20.39 of EPS and a 24.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $500.50. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 32% upside, or about $500.40.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $13.45 of EPS and a 19.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $262.95 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

UNH vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x23x8% higher
PE percentile715042% higher
EPS$15.55$18.6717% lower
FCF$23.6B$21.7B9% higher
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UNH’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

UNH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

UNH’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

UNH PE Valuation

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This table applies UNH's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

UNH Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks UNH's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

UNH Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks UNH's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

UNH Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks UNH's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

UNH Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in UNH's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

UNH Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector

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This chart compares UNH's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

UNH Weekly Price

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This chart uses UNH's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

UNH Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares UNH's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

UNH Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.