Oversold

ALSN

Same as last week
Valuation16/ 100
Cash flow & growth51/ 100
Upside potential33/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

ALSN's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 20.2× versus the full-history median of 9.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 14/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 15.9/100. The model applies a 20.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 11.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 17.5× PE and $8.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +15.5%, earnings -28.5%, operating margin -6.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 19.8% of revenue. The business score is 50.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $8.21 of EPS and a 17.5× PE, suggesting about $143.85 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $145.98. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.40 of EPS and a 16.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $89.27 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ALSN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE20x11x89% higher
PE percentile10050100% higher
EPS$6.29$5.897% higher
FCF$731M$575.9M27% higher
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ALSN’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ALSN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

ALSN’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

ALSN PE Valuation

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This table applies ALSN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ALSN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ALSN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ALSN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ALSN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ALSN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ALSN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ALSN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ALSN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ALSN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ALSN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares ALSN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ALSN Weekly Price

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This chart uses ALSN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ALSN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ALSN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ALSN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

F

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth55/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

F's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook is broadly stable, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +1.5%, operating margin +0.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.9% of revenue. The business score is 54.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 21.3% upside, or about $16.95.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 23.3%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 30.7% downside, or about $9.68, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

F vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x20x42% lower
PE percentile715042% higher
EPS-$1.87$0.92304% lower
FCF$7.3B$8.6B15% lower
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F’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

F Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

F’s outlook is generally stable, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

F PE Valuation

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This table applies F's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

F Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks F's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

F Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks F's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

F Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks F's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

F Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in F's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

F Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares F's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

F Weekly Price

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This chart uses F's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

F Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares F's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

F Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.