Oversold

ALTO

Valuation62/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential57/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

ALTO's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 4 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.7%, from $4.07 to $4.04. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 4.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 6× versus the full-history median of 9.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 69.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 61.5/100. The model applies a -12.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 8.3× PE and $0.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +1.1%, operating margin +9.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.3% of revenue. The business score is 66.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

A depressed valuation offers recovery potential if earnings stabilize. A recovery is not yet confirmed by operating results. Over the past year, revenue +1.1% and operating margin 9.5 percentage points.

This recovery case holds projected earnings at $0.59 per share. A 9.3× PE suggests $5.44, or 34.8% upside. The lower to middle historical valuation range sets the target, with typical price movements limiting the rebound. Peak profits and valuations are not required.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.49 of EPS and a 5.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $2.87 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ALTO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE6x16x62% lower
PE percentile125077% lower
EPS$0.67-$0.31$0.98 higher
FCF$49.9M-$1.8M+$51.7M
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ALTO’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ALTO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

ALTO’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

ALTO PE Valuation

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This table applies ALTO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ALTO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ALTO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ALTO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ALTO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ALTO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ALTO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ALTO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ALTO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ALTO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ALTO PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares ALTO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ALTO Weekly Price

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This chart uses ALTO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ALTO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ALTO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ALTO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.