Oversold

AMSC

Valuation62/ 100
Cash flow & growth79/ 100
Upside potential54/ 100
Risk potential53/ 100

AMSC's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.7%, from $28.49 to $29.55.

Valuation and price changes added 3.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 9.8× versus the full-history median of 83.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 61.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 61.5/100. The model applies a 27.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 81× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +25.9%, earnings +665.5%, operating margin +3.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 6.4% of revenue. The business score is 79.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 62.5% upside, or about $47.99.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 20.4%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 53.4% downside, or about $13.76, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AMSC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE9.8x113x91% lower
PE percentile6.85087% lower
EPS$3.03-$0.32$3.34 higher
FCF$20.5M-$2.5M+$23M
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AMSC’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AMSC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

AMSC’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AMSC PE Valuation

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This table applies AMSC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AMSC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AMSC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AMSC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AMSC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AMSC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AMSC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AMSC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AMSC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AMSC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AMSC PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AMSC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AMSC Weekly Price

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This chart uses AMSC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AMSC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AMSC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AMSC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

CAT

Valuation18/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

CAT's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.7%, from $800.25 to $813.94. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 35.2× versus the full-history median of 17.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 13.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 17.5/100. The model applies a 28.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 30.5× PE and $32.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.4%, earnings +18.3%, operating margin -0.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 12% of revenue. The business score is 67.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $32.19 of EPS and a 30.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $983.33. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 20.1% upside, or about $983.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $20.24 of EPS and a 28.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $580.07 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CAT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x21x68% higher
PE percentile885077% higher
EPS$23.25$15.0455% higher
FCF$9B$6.8B32% higher
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CAT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CAT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

CAT’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CAT PE Valuation

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This table applies CAT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CAT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CAT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CAT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CAT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CAT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CAT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CAT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CAT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CAT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CAT PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares CAT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CAT Weekly Price

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This chart uses CAT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CAT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CAT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CAT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.