Oversold

AMZN

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential27/ 100

AMZN's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 12 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.0%, from $266.43 to $258.51. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 11.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 40.1x versus 45.8x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 28 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +15.8%, operating margin +0.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -1.5% of revenue. The business score is 59.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $8.67 of EPS and a 41× PE, suggesting a share price of about $355.63. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 38.5% upside, or about $355.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.66 of EPS and a 37.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $213.23 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AMZN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE21x73x72% lower
PE percentile0.35099% lower
EPS$12.43$3.40266% higher
FCF-$11.6B$9.3B225% lower
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AMZN’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AMZN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

AMZN’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AMZN PE Valuation

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This table applies AMZN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AMZN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AMZN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AMZN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AMZN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AMZN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AMZN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AMZN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AMZN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AMZN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares AMZN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AMZN Weekly Price

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This chart uses AMZN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AMZN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AMZN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AMZN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

CASY

Same as last week
Valuation35/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

CASY's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 29.6× versus the full-history median of 23.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 34.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 35.2/100. The model applies a 11.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 30.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 32.5× PE and $25.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +13.8%, earnings +33.2%, operating margin +0.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.5% of revenue. The business score is 67.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $25.08 of EPS and a 32.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $815.08. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 32.4% upside, or about $814.88.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $17.52 of EPS and a 25× PE, suggesting a share price of about $438.64 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CASY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE30x26x13% higher
PE percentile925085% higher
EPS$20.76$12.1471% higher
FCF$648.9M$452.2M44% higher
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CASY’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CASY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

CASY’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CASY PE Valuation

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This table applies CASY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CASY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CASY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CASY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CASY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CASY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CASY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CASY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CASY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CASY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CASY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares CASY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CASY Weekly Price

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This chart uses CASY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CASY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CASY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CASY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.