Oversold

AMZN

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential27/ 100

AMZN's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 12 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.0%, from $266.43 to $258.51. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 11.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 40.1x versus 45.8x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 28 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +15.8%, operating margin +0.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -1.5% of revenue. The business score is 59.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $8.67 of EPS and a 41× PE, suggesting a share price of about $355.63. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 38.5% upside, or about $355.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.66 of EPS and a 37.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $213.23 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AMZN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE21x73x72% lower
PE percentile0.35099% lower
EPS$12.43$3.40266% higher
FCF-$11.6B$9.3B225% lower
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AMZN’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AMZN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

AMZN’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AMZN PE Valuation

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This table applies AMZN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AMZN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AMZN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AMZN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AMZN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AMZN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AMZN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AMZN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AMZN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AMZN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares AMZN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AMZN Weekly Price

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This chart uses AMZN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AMZN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AMZN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AMZN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

MBLY

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential48/ 100

MBLY's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +5%, operating margin +141.4 percentage points. The business score is 66.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 46.5% upside, or about $12.09.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 21.8%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 47.9% downside, or about $4.30, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MBLY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$4.99-$1.25$3.74 lower
FCF$393.2M$400M2% lower
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MBLY’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages.

MBLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

MBLY’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

MBLY PE Valuation

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This table applies MBLY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MBLY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MBLY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MBLY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MBLY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MBLY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MBLY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MBLY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MBLY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MBLY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MBLY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares MBLY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MBLY Weekly Price

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This chart uses MBLY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MBLY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MBLY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MBLY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.