Oversold

AMZN

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential27/ 100

AMZN's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 12 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.0%, from $266.43 to $258.51. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 11.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 40.1x versus 45.8x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 28 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +15.8%, operating margin +0.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -1.5% of revenue. The business score is 59.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $8.67 of EPS and a 41× PE, suggesting a share price of about $355.63. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 38.5% upside, or about $355.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.66 of EPS and a 37.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $213.23 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AMZN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE21x73x72% lower
PE percentile0.35099% lower
EPS$12.43$3.40266% higher
FCF-$11.6B$9.3B225% lower
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AMZN’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AMZN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

AMZN’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

AMZN PE Valuation

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This table applies AMZN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AMZN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AMZN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AMZN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AMZN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AMZN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AMZN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AMZN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AMZN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AMZN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares AMZN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AMZN Weekly Price

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This chart uses AMZN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AMZN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AMZN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AMZN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

MGA

Same as last week
Valuation19/ 100
Cash flow & growth54/ 100
Upside potential36/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

MGA's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 24.5× versus the full-history median of 13× shown in the valuation table, producing 16.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 18.9/100. The model applies a 21.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 21.5× PE and $3.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +1.9%, earnings -36.5%, operating margin +1.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 7.6% of revenue. The business score is 54/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.55 of EPS and a 21.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $76.29. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 15.4% upside, or about $76.31.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.33 of EPS and a 20.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $47.35 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MGA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x16x54% higher
PE percentile845069% higher
EPS$2.70$3.3920% lower
FCF$3.2B$1.4B129% higher
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MGA’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MGA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

MGA’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

MGA PE Valuation

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This table applies MGA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MGA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MGA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MGA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MGA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MGA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MGA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MGA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MGA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MGA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MGA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares MGA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MGA Weekly Price

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This chart uses MGA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MGA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MGA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MGA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.