Oversold

APH

Valuation38/ 100
Cash flow & growth87/ 100
Upside potential54/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

APH's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 7 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 47.5%, from $157.74 to $82.78.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 7.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 42× versus the full-history median of 30.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 29.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 37.9/100. The model applies a 31.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 37.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 41.5× PE and $2.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +54.2%, earnings +59.4%, operating margin +4.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 16.2% of revenue. The business score is 86.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.84 of EPS and a 41.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $117.87. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 40.5% upside, or about $117.91.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.74 of EPS and a 33.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $57.77 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

APH vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE42x31x33% higher
PE percentile905080% higher
EPS$2.00$1.6621% higher
FCF$4.7B$2.1B122% higher
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APH’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

APH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

APH’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

APH PE Valuation

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This table applies APH's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

APH Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks APH's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

APH Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks APH's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

APH Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks APH's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

APH Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in APH's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

APH Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

APH PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares APH's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

APH Weekly Price

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This chart uses APH's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

APH Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares APH's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

APH Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

NVDA

Same as last week
Valuation92/ 100
Cash flow & growth93/ 100
Upside potential82/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

NVDA's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 27.6× versus the full-history median of 65.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 89.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 92/100. The model applies a 44.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 50.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 33.9× PE and $12.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +83.4%, earnings +125.4%, operating margin +7.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 41.9% of revenue. The business score is 93.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $12.26 of EPS and a 33.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $415.41 — 90% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.09 of EPS and a 25.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $178.98 — 18% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NVDA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE28x74x63% lower
PE percentile0.65099% lower
EPS$7.91$1.54413% higher
FCF$127B$33B284% higher
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NVDA’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NVDA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

NVDA’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

NVDA PE Valuation

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This table applies NVDA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NVDA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NVDA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NVDA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NVDA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NVDA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NVDA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NVDA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NVDA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NVDA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NVDA PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares NVDA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NVDA Weekly Price

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This chart uses NVDA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NVDA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NVDA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NVDA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.