Oversold

APLD

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential56/ 100
Risk potential66/ 100

APLD's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +167.4%, operating margin -0.2 percentage points. The business score is 62.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 86% upside, or about $49.14.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 29.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 66.4% downside, or about $8.88, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

APLD vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.89-$0.73$0.16 lower
FCF-$2.8B-$413.1M-$2.4B
Loading historical comparisons…

APLD’s earnings are below their historical averages.

APLD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

APLD’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

APLD PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies APLD's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

APLD Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks APLD's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

APLD Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks APLD's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

APLD Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks APLD's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

APLD Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in APLD's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

APLD Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

APLD PE vs Technology Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares APLD's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

APLD Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses APLD's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

APLD Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares APLD's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

APLD Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.