Oversold

AR

Valuation52/ 100
Cash flow & growth82/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential33/ 100

AR's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.5%, from $38.45 to $39.41. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 15.2x versus 15.5x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 31 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.8%, operating margin +9.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 25.1% of revenue. The business score is 82.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.57 of EPS and a 15.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $54.37. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 41.5% upside, or about $54.38.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.17 of EPS and a 13.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $30.13 — 33% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE11x169x93% lower
PE percentile395022% lower
EPS$3.48$0.42725% higher
FCF$1.4B$1.4B1% higher
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AR’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

AR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

AR’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

AR PE Valuation

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This table applies AR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AR PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares AR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AR Weekly Price

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This chart uses AR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.