Oversold

ARKO

Valuation9/ 100
Cash flow & growth47/ 100
Upside potential21/ 100
Risk potential37/ 100

ARKO's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 11.9%, from $4.37 to $4.89. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 68.7× versus the full-history median of 24.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 8.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 8.5/100. The model applies a 8.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 36.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 54.1× PE and $0.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -2.1%, earnings -10.8%, operating margin +0.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 0.5% of revenue. The business score is 47/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.08 of EPS and a 54.1× PE, suggesting about $4.52 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $5.62. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.06 of EPS and a 51.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $3.09 — 37% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ARKO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE69x70x2% lower
PE percentile805061% higher
EPS$0.07$0.2571% lower
FCF$39.9M$55.7M28% lower
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ARKO’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ARKO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

ARKO’s outlook is mixed, with declining sales expectations a concern.

ARKO PE Valuation

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This table applies ARKO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ARKO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ARKO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ARKO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ARKO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ARKO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ARKO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ARKO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ARKO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ARKO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ARKO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares ARKO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ARKO Weekly Price

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This chart uses ARKO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ARKO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ARKO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ARKO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.