Oversold

ARM

Valuation51/ 100
Cash flow & growth75/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential42/ 100

ARM's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 5.5%, from $239.05 to $252.09. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 273× versus the full-history median of 246.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 43.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 50.9/100. The model applies a 27% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 231.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 285.7× PE and $1.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +25.1%, earnings +47%, operating margin -1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 28.6% of revenue. The business score is 74.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.32 of EPS and a 285.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $378.50. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 42.9% upside, or about $378.38.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.85 of EPS and a 180.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $153.12 — 42% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ARM vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE273x395x31% lower
PE percentile565012% higher
EPS$0.97$0.5480% higher
FCF$1.5B$753.5M96% higher
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ARM’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ARM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

ARM’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

ARM PE Valuation

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This table applies ARM's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ARM Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ARM's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ARM Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ARM's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ARM Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ARM's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ARM Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ARM's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ARM Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ARM PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ARM's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ARM Weekly Price

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This chart uses ARM's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ARM Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ARM's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ARM Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

NVDA

Same as last week
Valuation92/ 100
Cash flow & growth93/ 100
Upside potential82/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

NVDA's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 27.6× versus the full-history median of 65.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 89.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 92/100. The model applies a 44.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 50.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 33.9× PE and $12.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +83.4%, earnings +125.4%, operating margin +7.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 41.9% of revenue. The business score is 93.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $12.26 of EPS and a 33.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $415.41 — 90% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.09 of EPS and a 25.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $178.98 — 18% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NVDA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE28x74x63% lower
PE percentile0.65099% lower
EPS$7.91$1.54413% higher
FCF$127B$33B284% higher
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NVDA’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NVDA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

NVDA’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

NVDA PE Valuation

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This table applies NVDA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NVDA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NVDA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NVDA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NVDA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NVDA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NVDA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NVDA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NVDA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NVDA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NVDA PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares NVDA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NVDA Weekly Price

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This chart uses NVDA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NVDA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NVDA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NVDA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.