Oversold

ARR

Valuation46/ 100
Cash flow & growth50/ 100
Upside potential36/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

ARR's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but a weakening outlook adds pressure, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 2 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.2%, from $16.32 to $16.35. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 1.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 4.3× versus the full-history median of 4.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 52.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 46.1/100. The model applies a -4.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 6.3× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: limited comparable growth data. The business score is 50/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $18.17. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 25.4% downside, or about $11.79, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ARR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE4.2x6.1x30% lower
PE percentile445012% lower
EPS$3.72-$3.36$7.08 higher
FCF$319.5M$113.2M182% higher
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ARR’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ARR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

ARR’s outlook is weakening, with declining sales expectations a concern.

ARR PE Valuation

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This table applies ARR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ARR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ARR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ARR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ARR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ARR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ARR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ARR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ARR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ARR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ARR PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares ARR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ARR Weekly Price

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This chart uses ARR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ARR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ARR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ARR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.