Oversold

ASML

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth71/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential32/ 100

ASML's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 7 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.1%, from $1696.16 to $1714.88. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 6.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +9.8%, earnings +14.9%, operating margin +0.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 28.3% of revenue. The business score is 70.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 27.7% upside, or about $2168.73.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 19.7%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 32% downside, or about $1154.84, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ASML vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE53x42x27% higher
PE percentile915081% higher
EPS$32.14$18.2876% higher
FCF$11.7B$7.7B51% higher
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ASML’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ASML Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

ASML’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ASML PE Valuation

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This table applies ASML's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ASML Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ASML's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ASML Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ASML's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ASML Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ASML's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ASML Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ASML's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ASML Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ASML PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ASML's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ASML Weekly Price

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This chart uses ASML's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ASML Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ASML's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ASML Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

CAT

Valuation18/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

CAT's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.7%, from $800.25 to $813.94. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 35.2× versus the full-history median of 17.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 13.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 17.5/100. The model applies a 28.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 30.5× PE and $32.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.4%, earnings +18.3%, operating margin -0.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 12% of revenue. The business score is 67.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $32.19 of EPS and a 30.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $983.33. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 20.1% upside, or about $983.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $20.24 of EPS and a 28.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $580.07 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CAT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x21x68% higher
PE percentile885077% higher
EPS$23.25$15.0455% higher
FCF$9B$6.8B32% higher
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CAT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CAT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

CAT’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CAT PE Valuation

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This table applies CAT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CAT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CAT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CAT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CAT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CAT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CAT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CAT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CAT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CAT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CAT PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares CAT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CAT Weekly Price

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This chart uses CAT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CAT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CAT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CAT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.