Oversold

ASTS

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential56/ 100
Risk potential65/ 100

ASTS's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +2256.9%, operating margin +4623 percentage points. The business score is 77/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 81.1% upside, or about $108.41.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 29%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 64.9% downside, or about $21.01, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ASTS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$2.16-$1.04$1.12 lower
FCF-$1.6B-$350.8M-$1.3B
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ASTS’s earnings are below their historical averages.

ASTS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

ASTS’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ASTS PE Valuation

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This table applies ASTS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ASTS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ASTS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ASTS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ASTS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ASTS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ASTS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ASTS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ASTS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ASTS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ASTS PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ASTS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ASTS Weekly Price

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This chart uses ASTS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ASTS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ASTS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ASTS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

ESE

Same as last week
Valuation70/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential64/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

ESE's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 22.3× versus the full-history median of 29.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 68/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 69.6/100. The model applies a 14.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 29× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 25.3× PE and $15 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +20.1%, earnings +173.4%, operating margin -0.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 15.2% of revenue. The business score is 73.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $15.00 of EPS and a 25.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $380.26. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 40.7% upside, or about $380.31.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $10.32 of EPS and a 21.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $218.89 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ESE vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE22x37x40% lower
PE percentile165068% lower
EPS$12.14$4.29183% higher
FCF$196.6M$97.2M102% higher
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ESE’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ESE Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

ESE’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ESE PE Valuation

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This table applies ESE's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ESE Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ESE's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ESE Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ESE's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ESE Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ESE's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ESE Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ESE's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ESE Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ESE PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ESE's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ESE Weekly Price

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This chart uses ESE's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ESE Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ESE's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ESE Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.