Oversold

ASTS

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential56/ 100
Risk potential65/ 100

ASTS's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +2256.9%, operating margin +4623 percentage points. The business score is 77/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 81.1% upside, or about $108.41.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 29%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 64.9% downside, or about $21.01, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ASTS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$2.16-$1.04$1.12 lower
FCF-$1.6B-$350.8M-$1.3B
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ASTS’s earnings are below their historical averages.

ASTS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

ASTS’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ASTS PE Valuation

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This table applies ASTS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ASTS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ASTS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ASTS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ASTS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ASTS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ASTS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ASTS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ASTS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ASTS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ASTS PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ASTS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ASTS Weekly Price

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This chart uses ASTS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ASTS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ASTS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ASTS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SAIC

Valuation60/ 100
Cash flow & growth56/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

SAIC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score fell 2 points, mainly due to business results and financial strength. Price rose 0.6%, from $125.96 to $126.75. Reported annual EPS changed from $8.89 to $8.55.

Business results and financial strength subtracted 1.4 points. Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 15.2× versus the full-history median of 17.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 59.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 59.8/100. The model applies a 11.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.9× PE and $10.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.8%, earnings +3.5%, operating margin +0.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8.4% of revenue. The business score is 55.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $10.30 of EPS and a 14.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $153.60. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 18.2% upside, or about $153.54.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.29 of EPS and a 12.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $91.13 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SAIC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE15x18x14% lower
PE percentile315039% lower
EPS$8.55$6.2736% higher
FCF$619M$485.3M28% higher
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SAIC’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SAIC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SAIC’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

SAIC PE Valuation

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This table applies SAIC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SAIC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SAIC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SAIC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SAIC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SAIC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SAIC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SAIC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SAIC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SAIC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SAIC PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares SAIC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SAIC Weekly Price

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This chart uses SAIC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SAIC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SAIC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SAIC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.