Oversold

AVAL

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

AVAL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +16%, earnings +10.5%, operating margin +0.5 percentage points. The business score is 62.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 20.5% upside, or about $6.45.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 29.1% downside, or about $3.79, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AVAL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE14x11x29% higher
PE percentile755051% higher
EPS$0.38$0.4516% lower
FCF$560.2M-$2.4B+$2.9B
Loading historical comparisons…

AVAL’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AVAL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

AVAL’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

AVAL PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies AVAL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AVAL Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks AVAL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AVAL Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks AVAL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AVAL Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks AVAL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AVAL Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in AVAL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AVAL Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AVAL PE vs Financial Services Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares AVAL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AVAL Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses AVAL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AVAL Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares AVAL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AVAL Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

BLK

Valuation37/ 100
Cash flow & growth54/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential27/ 100

BLK's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.6%, from $1164.48 to $1122.29.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 6.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 25.8× versus the full-history median of 20.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 35/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 37.4/100. The model applies a 17.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 23.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 25.7× PE and $53.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +26.5%, earnings +1.1%, operating margin -3.7 percentage points. The business score is 53.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $53.06 of EPS and a 25.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $1361.52. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 26.1% upside, or about $1361.44.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $35.92 of EPS and a 21.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $788.22 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

BLK vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE26x21x24% higher
PE percentile935087% higher
EPS$41.84$37.0613% higher
FCF$2.3B$4.1B44% lower
Loading historical comparisons…

BLK’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

BLK Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

BLK’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

BLK PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies BLK's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

BLK Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks BLK's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

BLK Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks BLK's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

BLK Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks BLK's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

BLK Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in BLK's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

BLK Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

BLK PE vs Financial Services Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares BLK's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

BLK Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses BLK's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

BLK Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares BLK's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

BLK Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.