Oversold

AVAV

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth74/ 100
Upside potential47/ 100
Risk potential50/ 100

AVAV's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +84.4%, operating margin +4.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 2.3% of revenue. The business score is 74/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 44.3% upside, or about $211.70.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 31.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 49.7% downside, or about $73.80, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AVAV vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE145x87x67% higher
PE percentile915082% higher
EPS-$5.82-$1.19$4.63 lower
FCF$46.2M-$25.5M+$71.8M
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AVAV’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AVAV Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

AVAV’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

AVAV PE Valuation

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This table applies AVAV's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AVAV Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AVAV's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AVAV Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AVAV's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AVAV Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AVAV's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AVAV Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AVAV's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AVAV Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AVAV PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares AVAV's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AVAV Weekly Price

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This chart uses AVAV's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AVAV Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AVAV's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AVAV Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.