Oversold

AX

Valuation43/ 100
Cash flow & growth55/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

AX's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.1%, from $97.85 to $97.95. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 5.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 11× versus the full-history median of 9.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 42.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 43/100. The model applies a 12.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 10.7× PE and $10.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +13.5%, earnings +13.5%, operating margin -2.3 percentage points. The business score is 55.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $10.28 of EPS and a 10.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $109.78. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 17.7% upside, or about $109.77.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.25 of EPS and a 8.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $64.16 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AX vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE11x10x8% higher
PE percentile665031% higher
EPS$8.47$5.5553% higher
FCF$462.3M$298.8M55% higher
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AX’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

AX’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

AX PE Valuation

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This table applies AX's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AX Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AX's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AX Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AX's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AX Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AX's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AX Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AX's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AX Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AX PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares AX's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AX Weekly Price

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This chart uses AX's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AX Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AX's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AX Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.