The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.7%, from $2961.96 to $2983.29. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 19.8× versus the full-history median of 19.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 48.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 49.8/100. The model applies a 12.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 21.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 21.2× PE and $176.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +5.7%, earnings -1.6%, operating margin -1.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8.2% of revenue. The business score is 53.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $176.25 of EPS and a 21.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $3737.23. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 29.9% upside, or about $3736.90.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $125.54 of EPS and a 18.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $2366.32 — 18% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

The score fell 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.1%, from $105.62 to $103.41.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 9.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 22.3× versus the full-history median of 13.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 20.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 19.3/100. The model applies a 7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 17.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 19.6× PE and $5.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +14.7%, earnings +6.9%, operating margin -0.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 20.2% of revenue. The business score is 66.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $5.55 of EPS and a 19.6× PE, suggesting about $108.52 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $123.91. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.15 of EPS and a 18.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $77.97 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.