Oversold

BABA

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth36/ 100
Upside potential42/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

BABA's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.8%, from $118.90 to $113.24.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 11.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +4.3%, operating margin -9.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is -7.5% of revenue. The business score is 35.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 24.8% upside, or about $136.41.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 32.1%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 34% downside, or about $72.14, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

BABA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE26x33x22% lower
PE percentile865072% higher
EPS$4.20$13.3469% lower
FCF-$11.2B$18.8B160% lower
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BABA’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

BABA’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

BABA PE Valuation

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This table applies BABA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

BABA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks BABA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks BABA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

BABA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks BABA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

BABA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in BABA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

BABA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares BABA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

BABA Weekly Price

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This chart uses BABA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares BABA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

BABA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

HAS

Valuation76/ 100
Cash flow & growth69/ 100
Upside potential66/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

HAS's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and the outlook is broadly stable, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.8%, from $94.23 to $92.53. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 5.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 16.5× versus the full-history median of 24.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 74.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 75.7/100. The model applies a 16.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 21.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 18.8× PE and $7 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +17%. Free cash flow is 24.4% of revenue. The business score is 68.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $7.00 of EPS and a 18.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $131.77. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 43.9% upside, or about $131.73.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.74 of EPS and a 15.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $74.14 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HAS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE16x27x38% lower
PE percentile7.95084% lower
EPS$5.56-$0.56$6.12 higher
FCF$1.2B$606.4M100% higher
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HAS’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HAS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

HAS’s outlook is generally stable, though analyst coverage is limited.

HAS PE Valuation

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This table applies HAS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HAS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HAS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HAS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HAS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HAS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HAS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HAS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HAS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HAS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HAS PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares HAS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HAS Weekly Price

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This chart uses HAS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HAS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HAS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HAS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.