Oversold

BABA

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth36/ 100
Upside potential42/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

BABA's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.8%, from $118.90 to $113.24.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 11.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +4.3%, operating margin -9.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is -7.5% of revenue. The business score is 35.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 24.8% upside, or about $136.41.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 32.1%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 34% downside, or about $72.14, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

BABA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE26x33x22% lower
PE percentile865072% higher
EPS$4.20$13.3469% lower
FCF-$11.2B$18.8B160% lower
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BABA’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

BABA’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

BABA PE Valuation

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This table applies BABA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

BABA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks BABA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks BABA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

BABA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks BABA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

BABA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in BABA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

BABA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares BABA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

BABA Weekly Price

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This chart uses BABA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares BABA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

BABA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

MBC

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth39/ 100
Upside potential26/ 100
Risk potential64/ 100

MBC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue 0%, operating margin -9.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 2.7% of revenue. The business score is 38.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 22.9% upside, or about $9.13.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 63.9% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 48.8% and the PE falls 29.4%. That gives $0.08 per share at a 32× PE, or about $2.68. Price swings alone suggest 36.1% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MBC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE45x15x213% higher
PE percentile985096% higher
EPS-$0.69$1.06165% lower
FCF$74.4M$187.6M60% lower
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MBC’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MBC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

MBC’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

MBC PE Valuation

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This table applies MBC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MBC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MBC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MBC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MBC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MBC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MBC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MBC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MBC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MBC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MBC PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares MBC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MBC Weekly Price

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This chart uses MBC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MBC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MBC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MBC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.