Oversold

BABA

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth36/ 100
Upside potential42/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

BABA's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.8%, from $118.90 to $113.24.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 11.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +4.3%, operating margin -9.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is -7.5% of revenue. The business score is 35.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 24.8% upside, or about $136.41.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 32.1%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 34% downside, or about $72.14, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

BABA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE26x33x22% lower
PE percentile865072% higher
EPS$4.20$13.3469% lower
FCF-$11.2B$18.8B160% lower
Loading historical comparisons…

BABA’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

BABA’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

BABA PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies BABA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

BABA Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks BABA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks BABA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

BABA Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks BABA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

BABA Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in BABA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

BABA Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares BABA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

BABA Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses BABA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares BABA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

BABA Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

MELI

Same as last week
Valuation74/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

MELI's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 51.6× versus the full-history median of 76.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 74.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 74.1/100. The model applies a 9.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 59.7× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 58.9× PE and $43.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +46%, earnings -9.2%, operating margin -4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 35.4% of revenue. The business score is 62.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $43.58 of EPS and a 58.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $2567.26. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 35.3% upside, or about $2567.14.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $31.09 of EPS and a 46.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $1452.66 — 23% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MELI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE52x156x67% lower
PE percentile165068% lower
EPS$36.75$16.88118% higher
FCF$12.5B$4.1B207% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

MELI’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MELI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

MELI’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

MELI PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies MELI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MELI Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks MELI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MELI Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks MELI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MELI Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks MELI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MELI Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in MELI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MELI Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MELI PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares MELI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MELI Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses MELI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MELI Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares MELI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MELI Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.