Oversold

BXMT

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth34/ 100
Upside potential34/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BXMT's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -3.8%, operating margin -12.5 percentage points. The business score is 34.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $15.35. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 23% downside, or about $10.28, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

BXMT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE167x34x385% higher
PE percentile945088% higher
EPS$0.08$1.0692% lower
FCF$118.1M$376.5M69% lower
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BXMT’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

BXMT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

BXMT’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

BXMT PE Valuation

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This table applies BXMT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

BXMT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks BXMT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

BXMT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks BXMT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

BXMT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks BXMT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

BXMT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in BXMT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

BXMT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

BXMT PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares BXMT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

BXMT Weekly Price

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This chart uses BXMT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

BXMT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares BXMT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

BXMT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.