Oversold

CASY

Same as last week
Valuation35/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

CASY's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 29.6× versus the full-history median of 23.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 34.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 35.2/100. The model applies a 11.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 30.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 32.5× PE and $25.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +13.8%, earnings +33.2%, operating margin +0.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.5% of revenue. The business score is 67.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $25.08 of EPS and a 32.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $815.08. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 32.4% upside, or about $814.88.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $17.52 of EPS and a 25× PE, suggesting a share price of about $438.64 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CASY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE30x26x13% higher
PE percentile925085% higher
EPS$20.76$12.1471% higher
FCF$648.9M$452.2M44% higher
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CASY’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CASY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

CASY’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CASY PE Valuation

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This table applies CASY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CASY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CASY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CASY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CASY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CASY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CASY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CASY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CASY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CASY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CASY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares CASY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CASY Weekly Price

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This chart uses CASY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CASY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CASY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CASY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

NIO

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth64/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential45/ 100

NIO's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +63.7%, operating margin +29 percentage points. The business score is 63.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 43.2% upside, or about $5.28.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 27.7%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 45.3% downside, or about $2.02, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NIO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.28-$1.25$0.97 higher
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NIO’s earnings are above their historical averages.

NIO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

NIO’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

NIO PE Valuation

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This table applies NIO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NIO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NIO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NIO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NIO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NIO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NIO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NIO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NIO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NIO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares NIO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NIO Weekly Price

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This chart uses NIO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NIO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NIO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NIO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.