Oversold

CAT

Valuation18/ 100
Cash flow & growth67/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

CAT's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.7%, from $800.25 to $813.94. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 35.2× versus the full-history median of 17.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 13.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 17.5/100. The model applies a 28.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 30.5× PE and $32.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.4%, earnings +18.3%, operating margin -0.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 12% of revenue. The business score is 67.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $32.19 of EPS and a 30.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $983.33. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 20.1% upside, or about $983.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $20.24 of EPS and a 28.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $580.07 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CAT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x21x68% higher
PE percentile885077% higher
EPS$23.25$15.0455% higher
FCF$9B$6.8B32% higher
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CAT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CAT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

CAT’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CAT PE Valuation

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This table applies CAT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CAT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CAT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CAT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CAT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CAT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CAT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CAT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CAT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CAT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CAT PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares CAT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CAT Weekly Price

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This chart uses CAT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CAT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CAT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CAT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

CDLR

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth35/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential37/ 100

CDLR's valuation appears fair, below average fundamentals limit its appeal, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 2 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.5%, from $25.05 to $24.93. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 2.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +57.5%, earnings -18.8%, operating margin -14.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -45.2% of revenue. The business score is 35.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 21.7% upside, or about $31.45.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 37.4% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 23.2% and the PE falls 18.5%. That gives $1.90 per share at a 8.5× PE, or about $16.17. Price swings alone suggest 30.8% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CDLR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE10x170x94% lower
PE percentile49502% lower
EPS$2.47-$2.00$4.47 higher
FCF-$386.4M-$433.3M+$46.9M
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CDLR’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CDLR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

CDLR’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

CDLR PE Valuation

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This table applies CDLR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CDLR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CDLR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CDLR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CDLR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CDLR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CDLR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CDLR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CDLR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CDLR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CDLR PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares CDLR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CDLR Weekly Price

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This chart uses CDLR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CDLR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CDLR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CDLR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.