Oversold

CBRL

Valuation10/ 100
Cash flow & growth35/ 100
Upside potential23/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

CBRL's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.7%, from $55.66 to $54.69.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 42.8× versus the full-history median of 18.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 11.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 10.1/100. The model applies a 0.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 21.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 33.6× PE and $1.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -4.9%, earnings -55.2%, operating margin -2.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 1.8% of revenue. The business score is 34.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.26 of EPS and a 33.6× PE, suggesting about $42.37 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $56.90. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.95 of EPS and a 32.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $30.95 — 38% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CBRL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE43x40x6% higher
PE percentile875074% higher
EPS$1.16$3.8170% lower
FCF$59.2M$68M13% lower
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CBRL’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CBRL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

CBRL’s outlook is mixed, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

CBRL PE Valuation

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This table applies CBRL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CBRL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CBRL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CBRL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CBRL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CBRL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CBRL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CBRL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CBRL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CBRL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CBRL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares CBRL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CBRL Weekly Price

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This chart uses CBRL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CBRL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CBRL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CBRL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.