Oversold

CENX

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth71/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential48/ 100

CENX's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.4%, from $46.59 to $46.78.

Valuation and price changes added 4.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +9.7%, operating margin +7.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.7% of revenue. The business score is 71.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 54.5% upside, or about $68.06.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 20.4%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 47.9% downside, or about $22.95, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CENX vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7.6x22x65% lower
PE percentile455011% lower
EPS$5.78$0.096,142% higher
FCF$151.2M-$45.3M+$196.5M
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CENX’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CENX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

CENX’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

CENX PE Valuation

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This table applies CENX's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CENX Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CENX's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CENX Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CENX's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CENX Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CENX's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CENX Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CENX's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CENX Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CENX PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares CENX's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CENX Weekly Price

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This chart uses CENX's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CENX Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CENX's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CENX Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.