Oversold

CGAU

Valuation48/ 100
Cash flow & growth79/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

CGAU's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 4 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.2%, from $23.44 to $22.92. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 3.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 15x versus 12.4x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 26 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +39.9%, operating margin +10.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.4% of revenue. The business score is 79/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.78 of EPS and a 15× PE, suggesting a share price of about $26.71. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 18% upside, or about $26.70.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.27 of EPS and a 13.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $17.37 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CGAU vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7.3x12x38% lower
PE percentile425016% lower
EPS$3.09$0.261,102% higher
FCF$92.3M$204.3M55% lower
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CGAU’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CGAU Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

CGAU’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

CGAU PE Valuation

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This table applies CGAU's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CGAU Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CGAU's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CGAU Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CGAU's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CGAU Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CGAU's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CGAU Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CGAU's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CGAU Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CGAU PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares CGAU's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CGAU Weekly Price

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This chart uses CGAU's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CGAU Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CGAU's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CGAU Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.