Oversold

CHKP

Valuation74/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential17/ 100

CHKP's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.9%, from $138.32 to $137.05. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 5.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 13.5× versus the full-history median of 20.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 75.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 73.8/100. The model applies a 5.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 20.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 15.3× PE and $11.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4.6%, earnings +27.2%, operating margin -4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 41.2% of revenue. The business score is 59.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $11.09 of EPS and a 15.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $169.67. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 28.9% upside, or about $169.68.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $8.43 of EPS and a 13× PE, suggesting a share price of about $109.36 — 17% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CHKP vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x21x36% lower
PE percentile6.35087% lower
EPS$9.77$7.0638% higher
FCF$1.1B$1.1B2% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

CHKP’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CHKP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

CHKP’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

CHKP PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies CHKP's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CHKP Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks CHKP's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CHKP Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks CHKP's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CHKP Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks CHKP's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CHKP Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in CHKP's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CHKP Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CHKP PE vs Technology Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares CHKP's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CHKP Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses CHKP's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CHKP Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares CHKP's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CHKP Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.