Oversold

CIEN

Valuation14/ 100
Cash flow & growth88/ 100
Upside potential68/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

CIEN's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to business results and financial strength. Price fell 15.2%, from $378.44 to $321.00. Reported annual EPS changed from $3.00 to $4.48.

Business results and financial strength subtracted 5.6 points. Valuation and price changes subtracted 5.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 78× versus the full-history median of 31.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 10.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 13.8/100. The model applies a 40.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 118.7× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 99.1× PE and $6.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +32.6%, earnings +361%, operating margin +8.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 11.9% of revenue. The business score is 87.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.81 of EPS and a 99.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $674.57. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 93% upside, or about $674.61.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.91 of EPS and a 55.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $217.97 — 38% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CIEN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE78x70x12% higher
PE percentile735046% higher
EPS$4.48$1.76154% higher
FCF$719M$296.6M142% higher
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CIEN’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

CIEN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

CIEN’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

CIEN PE Valuation

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This table applies CIEN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CIEN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CIEN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CIEN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CIEN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CIEN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CIEN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CIEN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CIEN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CIEN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CIEN PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares CIEN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CIEN Weekly Price

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This chart uses CIEN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CIEN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CIEN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CIEN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.