Oversold

CMC

Same as last week
Valuation26/ 100
Cash flow & growth76/ 100
Upside potential45/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

CMC's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.7× versus the full-history median of 8.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 28.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 26.2/100. The model applies a 6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14× PE and $6.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +15.2%, earnings +1612.9%, operating margin +3.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.6% of revenue. The business score is 75.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.10 of EPS and a 14× PE, suggesting a share price of about $85.24 — 26% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.46 of EPS and a 10.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $46.25 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CMC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x22x42% lower
PE percentile745048% higher
EPS$5.32$4.8510% higher
FCF$405M$401.3M1% higher
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CMC’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CMC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

CMC’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

CMC PE Valuation

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This table applies CMC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CMC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CMC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CMC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CMC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CMC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CMC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CMC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CMC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CMC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CMC PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares CMC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CMC Weekly Price

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This chart uses CMC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CMC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CMC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CMC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.