Oversold

CNQ

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth83/ 100
Upside potential45/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

CNQ's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 4 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.0%, from $48.99 to $50.46. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +10.1%, earnings +42.6%, operating margin +7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 19.4% of revenue. The business score is 82.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 21.1% upside, or about $60.63.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 20.9%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 25.6% downside, or about $37.25, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CNQ vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x25x50% lower
PE percentile705040% higher
EPS$4.05$2.3771% higher
FCF$6.8B$6.2B10% higher
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CNQ’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CNQ Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

CNQ’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

CNQ PE Valuation

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This table applies CNQ's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CNQ Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CNQ's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CNQ Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CNQ's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CNQ Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CNQ's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CNQ Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CNQ's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CNQ Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CNQ PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares CNQ's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CNQ Weekly Price

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This chart uses CNQ's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CNQ Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CNQ's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CNQ Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.