Oversold

COHR

Valuation17/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential75/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

COHR's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.0%, from $279.20 to $281.86. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 10.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 74.3× versus the full-history median of 33.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 12.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 16.8/100. The model applies a 40% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 164.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 98.8× PE and $6.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +22.5%, operating margin +2.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is -14.5% of revenue. The business score is 60.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.20 of EPS and a 98.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $612.54. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 100.6% upside, or about $612.57.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.62 of EPS and a 59.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $215.72 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

COHR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE74x81x9% lower
PE percentile655030% higher
EPS$4.11$0.049,385% higher
FCF-$1B$179.2M675% lower
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COHR’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

COHR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

COHR’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

COHR PE Valuation

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This table applies COHR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

COHR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks COHR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

COHR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks COHR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

COHR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks COHR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

COHR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in COHR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

COHR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

COHR PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares COHR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

COHR Weekly Price

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This chart uses COHR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

COHR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares COHR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

COHR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SMCI

Valuation82/ 100
Cash flow & growth66/ 100
Upside potential82/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

SMCI's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins.

Score change since last week

The score rose 9 points, mainly due to business results and financial strength. Price rose 6.8%, from $37.08 to $39.59. Reported annual EPS changed from $1.91 to $3.26.

Business results and financial strength added 5.4 points. Valuation and price changes added 3.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.3× versus the full-history median of 18.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 75.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 81.6/100. The model applies a 37.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 20.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 19.5× PE and $4.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +77.8%, earnings +183.5%, operating margin +1.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is -17.8% of revenue. The business score is 65.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $4.85 of EPS and a 19.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $94.49. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 135.6% upside, or about $94.48.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.83 of EPS and a 10.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $29.71 — 26% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SMCI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x21x42% lower
PE percentile145071% lower
EPS$3.26$1.02219% higher
FCF-$7B-$611.5M-$6.4B
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SMCI’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SMCI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SMCI’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

SMCI PE Valuation

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This table applies SMCI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SMCI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SMCI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SMCI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SMCI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SMCI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SMCI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SMCI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SMCI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SMCI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SMCI PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares SMCI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SMCI Weekly Price

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This chart uses SMCI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SMCI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SMCI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SMCI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.