Oversold

CRCL

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth76/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential65/ 100

CRCL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +37.2%, operating margin +16.1 percentage points. The business score is 76.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 73.4% upside, or about $157.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 64.9% downside, or about $31.80, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CRCL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE48x56x14% lower
EPS$1.88-$0.52$2.40 higher
FCF$776.9M$419.8M85% higher
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CRCL’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CRCL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

CRCL’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

CRCL PE Valuation

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This table applies CRCL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CRCL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks CRCL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CRCL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks CRCL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CRCL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks CRCL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CRCL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in CRCL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CRCL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CRCL PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares CRCL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CRCL Weekly Price

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This chart uses CRCL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CRCL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares CRCL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CRCL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SHOP

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth74/ 100
Upside potential50/ 100
Risk potential45/ 100

SHOP's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 5.1%, from $152.90 to $145.09. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +32.5%, operating margin +1.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 17.7% of revenue. The business score is 74.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 45.6% upside, or about $187.52.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 20.6%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 44.8% downside, or about $71.09, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SHOP vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE86x192x55% lower
PE percentile375026% lower
EPS$1.49$0.34337% higher
FCF$2.4B$897M162% higher
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SHOP’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SHOP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SHOP’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

SHOP PE Valuation

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This table applies SHOP's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SHOP Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SHOP's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SHOP Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SHOP's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SHOP Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SHOP's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SHOP Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SHOP's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SHOP Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SHOP PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares SHOP's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SHOP Weekly Price

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This chart uses SHOP's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SHOP Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SHOP's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SHOP Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.