Oversold

CSAN

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth54/ 100
Upside potential29/ 100
Risk potential56/ 100

CSAN's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -8%, operating margin +2.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.2% of revenue. The business score is 54.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 23.6% upside, or about $3.52.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 56.4% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 41.4% and the PE falls 25.5%. That gives $0.68 per share at a 1.8× PE, or about $1.24. Price swings alone suggest 36% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

CSAN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE2.4x24x90% lower
PE percentile105079% lower
EPS-$1.00-$0.66$0.34 lower
FCF$321.2M$617.5M48% lower
Loading historical comparisons…

CSAN’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

CSAN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning positive
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

CSAN’s outlook is mixed, with declining sales expectations a concern.

CSAN PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies CSAN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

CSAN Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks CSAN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

CSAN Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks CSAN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

CSAN Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks CSAN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

CSAN Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in CSAN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

CSAN Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

CSAN PE vs Energy Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares CSAN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

CSAN Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses CSAN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

CSAN Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares CSAN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

CSAN Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.