Historical cheapness: current PE is 5.1× versus the full-history median of 5.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 55.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 50.2/100. The model applies a 2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 4.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 4.8× PE and $2.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +14%, earnings +16.7%, operating margin -1.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 38.5% of revenue. The business score is 68.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $2.78 of EPS and a 4.8× PE, suggesting about $13.45 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $14.74. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.11 of EPS and a 4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $8.48 — 34% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.