The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 8.7%, from $61.91 to $67.32. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +19.9%, operating margin +0.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 12.4% of revenue. The business score is 68.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with typical movements among stocks in the same sector, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 32.8% upside, or about $80.99.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

The 39.3% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 27.4% and the PE falls 16.3%. That gives lower earnings at a lower valuation, or about the scenario price. Price swings alone suggest 38.8% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.0%, from $39.60 to $38.40. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 17.5× versus the full-history median of 30.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 81.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 85.2/100. The model applies a 30.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 28.8× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 20.6× PE and $2.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +0.2%, earnings -2.8%, operating margin +0.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.7% of revenue. The business score is 52.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.95 of EPS and a 20.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $60.65 — 64% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.82 of EPS and a 16.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $29.83 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.